Universal History Annotation << Back Modeling Scenarios of Conservative and Innovative "Cotton Famine" in 19th Century Europe: the Reasons for the Market Monopoly of "White Gold" Borisov V.A. Two types of scenarios have been modeled for the 19th century with 20–year intervals. The fi rst factor is the time of the "cotton famine" (1821–1825, 1841–1845, 1861–1865 (real period), 1881–1885, 1901–1905) and the second factor is the time of innovations in cotton processing technologies (1780–1805, 1800–1825, 1820–1845 (real period), 1840–1865, 1860–1885). It has been established that the rapid development of innovations leads to rapid adaptation and the passage of the "cotton famine", the actual historical scenario corresponds to the best option of all conservative ones. The reason for the market monopoly of "white gold" is the higher rate of cultivation and processing compared to fl ax, which failed to occupy a key position in the global market. Keywords: modeling, development scenarios, innovations, "cotton famine", "white gold", production function. DOI: 10.25791/vseist.01.2025.1220 Pp. 33-44.